population

population content

Population

The Nelson and Tasman regions are of similar size, with the Tasman District having an estimated population of 46,500 and Nelson city 44,700. Tasman's population has been consistently growing more strongly than that of Nelson and it has been the larger of the two council areas since 2003. Moreover, the population is predominantly urban - the main urban area which spans the boundary of the two local authorities has an estimated population of 58,700 in June 2008, 64% of the area's total.

Migration

Much of the population growth experienced in the past decade derived through inward migration, which has been running ahead of natural growth. The greatest proportion (two thirds) of inward migration to the region has come from other regions within New Zealand, and one third has come from overseas.

The numbers recorded as moving between regions throughout the country in the five years to 2006 were high, with the Nelson and Tasman regions recording the highest proportional incidence in New Zealand of both inward and outward migration in the five year period.

Population Growth Projections

Population projections for the region anticipate continuing growth. The projections profiled in the table below are projections based on the 2006 Census prepared by Statistics New Zealand and the "High Growth" projection prepared for Landcare Research based on the region's own population dynamics, rather than on New Zealand wide factors as used in the statistics New Zealand model.

Year	Low Growth	Medium Growth	High Growth	High Growth - Land Care Model
2006 Actual	87,500	87,500	87,500	Est. 82,900
2011	91,000	94,000	96,000	96,000
2016	91,000	97,000	102,000	106,000
2021	92,000	99,000	107,000	117,000
2026	92,000	102,000	111,000	131,000

_{Source: Population Growth Projections (as at 30 June) for Nelson-Tasman, 2007 and Landcare Research, July 2006.}

In the past 15 years, actual population growth in the region has typically been at the upper (High Growth) end of Statistics New Zealand's projections for the region. On that basis and given the dynamics of the region's inward migration, it could reasonably be anticipated that the regional population could be in the range 110,000 to 131,000 by 2026.

Analysis of domestic migration undertaken for the 'Population Growth Projections' for the region confirmed that arrival numbers are generally high between the 0-60 age groups, with a peak in the 25-40 year age grouping. The 60-85 plus age grouping has the lowest of all arrival numbers. This would suggest that the Nelson-Tasman region is especially attractive to people in the early to mid career stage if their lives.

Changing Profile

Growth in the region has also heralded a change in our ethnic profile. The Nelson Tasman community has been enriched by well-travelled, skilled and educated immigrants and New Zealander's. This is a recipe for positive growth and a reflection of the lifestyle choices being made by many who come here to live.

Ethnic Groups (2001)	Nelson	Tasman	New Zealand
European	93.5%	96.2%	80.1%
NZ Maori	8.0%	7.0%	14.7%
Pacific Islands	1.5%	0.6%	6.5%
Asian	2.1%	0.9%	6.6%
Other	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%

Age Distribution	Nelson	Tasman	New Zealand
Median Age	37.2	37.8	34.8
Aged 65 and over	14.3%	13.1%	12.1%
Aged 15 - 65	64.8%	64.0%	65.3%
Aged 15 and under	20.9%	23.0%	22.7%
Source: Census 2001, Statistics New Zealand